The Real Estate Roundtable with IPRG
IPRG Partners and guests discuss various topics on New York City Real Estate and the broader Real Estate Market.
The Real Estate Roundtable with IPRG
Update on New Jersey Market Feat. Yanni Marmarou
Despite predictions of a slowdown, New Jersey’s real estate market is experiencing a surprising surge in activity. Yanni Marmarou of IPRG’s New Jersey office joins to discuss what’s driving this momentum, how transit-oriented development is reshaping areas like Jersey City, and why shifting demographics are influencing the types of assets developers pursue. From the controversial “mansion tax” to Hoboken rents rivaling Brooklyn’s, this episode explores the forces behind the state’s rebound, and why there’s reason to remain optimistic about its upward trajectory.
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All right, we're here at the Real Estate Roundtable with IPRG, we're back and we have Yanni Marmaru from our New Jersey office here to talk about what's happening in Jersey. Welcome, yanni, thank you. Thank you for having me back. It's good to be back and I'm joined with Luke Sproviero. This is Derek Bestrick. So I was having a conversation yesterday with a pretty sizable owner in the market and he didn't know if this was like a hot summer for real estate or he thought it might be a little bit of a slow summer, and I was telling him that it was the furthest thing from slow on our end. But in New York we've seen a ton of activity. It's been, I'd say, a very hot real estate summer, yeah, but I just wanted to see what's going on in Jersey. What are you?
Speaker 2:seeing. It's good to see you guys.
Speaker 3:For sure.
Speaker 2:I miss you guys. I miss you too. Last time I was here, we were here and now we're across the river now. So we've got our office in downtown Jersey City. So yeah, I mean I was talking to a couple of the guys. Everyone was asking me, like how's your summer going? What's been going on? I'm like just been working Like we haven't had like a serious vacation. Probably take some time off at the end of August, but it's because of everything you said. I think, like we have been so busy and I think you know when you think about like why that is or what are the reasons right.
Speaker 2:And you look at, like last year, I think a lot of people, the conversations that we were having last year, like leading up to the election with with Trump and everything, is that a lot of people were kind of like waiting. They were trying to see what was going to happen. And then what was going to happen with rates. A lot of the conversations I had, people were just saying we're going to push off to January because they think that rates are going to magically fall Like Trump's going to. We think Trump's going to get elected and then rates are going to come down, as if he has some kind of you know, lever or tool, that that automatically happens. So come January, february, all of a sudden, all of these like eight rate cuts and everything else that we were anticipating. I think we've had zero rate cuts this year so far. I think 10 years gone up. Yeah, I don't think. I I don't think we've had one rate cut. We were talking about this yesterday yeah um, so check me on that.
Speaker 2:But um, there was obviously, I think, a lot of anticipation that we're going to be all of these rate cuts and, you know, cap rates are going to fall and everyone's going to come back to the market, and then you come January, february, march none of that happens. So people that were kind of in a free, like holding pattern for us have now said that's it, we're ready to sell. So there's been a ton of activity. So it's always this game, right? The first step for us is always identifying serious sellers to try and educate them on what their properties are worth in this new market, which I think has really now become like the new normal, like this is really what the market should be. So, yeah, we've been extremely busy. We have a lot of activity.
Speaker 2:I was just looking, obviously before we came here, to try and get an understanding on where we are with our current listings and what's under contract. We have more that's either contract pending or under contract than we have actually listed, so that's a good sign. We're trying to just get these deals now across the finish line. So it's sad, right, we're halfway through the summer. I feel like I really haven't been able to do that much time with the kids. I've tried to sneak out and golf whenever I could, but the reality is that it's been a very busy summer, so I think it's better than being extremely slow summer and having an awful summer. So for sure it's been good.
Speaker 3:It's been exciting from our end, obviously, to have the Jersey office going over there. I love going over there, right off the right off the path.
Speaker 2:Yeah, in between Exchange and Grove.
Speaker 3:Every time I go there. It's crazy how close it is. I mean it takes us. Our office is downtown Manhattan. I'm there in 15 minutes. It's a quick walk. It's an awesome office, so it's been great to see, and the thing thinking about it too right.
Speaker 2:I don't know if it was right when I came here, when we started this, I think it was. But we've really grown with people as well. You know we've, and I think there's probably been an opportunity to grow even faster with more people. I think it's kind of a small tight knit group there's there's 10 of us and we really try and like emphasize, like quality, cause when you're in a small group like that, you want people. It's like your family. You know you come into an office, you want to be able to look at everybody and you know, appreciate the people that you work with. And I think we have that. I think we have a very good culture, dynamic, everyone. So we grew from three and now there's 10. And I think we'll continue to grow as we identify like the best people. So we just hired somebody else last week. He was I think he kind of fits right in John with our office. So, yeah, I'm excited about, kind of you know, what's been going on.
Speaker 2:And if you look at it right from what's been happening over the past couple of years, you look at like, say, 22 to 23 for the product that we sell in just New Jersey and in terms of like the numbers right, I want to say that you saw 21 at like $12 billion worth of sales, from a million to 25. That's really I don't try and focus on the numbers over that, cause that's a big percentage of the sales in Jersey. So you go from like 12 billion give or take to 11 billion and then, as you saw, rates completely spike in 22, which was really the second half of 22, around September, I remember, because there were deals that I was working on that just completely people put pencils down. You saw a tremendous drop in volume from 22 to 23. It went from like 11 billion to 6 billion, right Give or take. And then you saw in 24, that number start to rise a little bit, right, so we went from about 6 billion to about 7 billion and already this year, from the last number that I saw, we're at close to 3.8. And the numbers are always kind of trailing because you're getting more data, you're getting everything updated.
Speaker 2:So I, if I had to make a guess, just with the activity as us being an example, I imagine that 25 is going to be better than 24 and, god willing, you know, 26 will be better than 25. We'll kind of get to a point. I would project that you know, in our markets for what we see, from like a million to $25 million, it's probably somewhere around, uh, like on a good average year, about nine to $10 billion in the state of New Jersey for the stuff that we sell, nice. So, um, so yeah, things have been, things have been good. I I think they're going to be better.
Speaker 2:I think we'll probably talk about a lot of the different changes and things that are kind of like on the horizon or what people are anticipating or kind of seeing coming down the pipe. You know, new York is always a big driver for what happens for us in Jersey. I think that what COVID did was it really kind of made people rush to obviously a lot of other places besides just Jersey. Right, people went out to Long Island, people went up to upstate, but we had a lot of people that came out to Jersey and have now permanently stayed. And in terms of like developments, I think we probably talked about this the last time, but this is only accelerated. You've just seen more and more developments happen along train lines, transit oriented, and that has really continued to to continue.
Speaker 1:You feel like that's going on throughout the state, like, yeah, what is it? The Jersey transit, the path or those the main?
Speaker 2:transportation arteries, more so Jersey transit, because path has been here for a while. It's in a lot of the cities, but it's still very important. I mean, what's been happening with journal square, obviously? Uh, that's been.
Speaker 1:That is so crazy. What's happening in journal square? Obviously, uh, that's been. That is so crazy.
Speaker 3:What's happening in journal square, like the towers, you mean, it's like a brand new city, it's popping up and like originally, a few years ago, they had those main towers, yeah, and now they look to kushner tower yeah, now they look like dismal compared to what the other towers.
Speaker 2:They're small. You can see from here yeah sure are, the entire skyline has changed. That's insane.
Speaker 1:Look at that giant glass building out there. No, it's not. The thing is beautiful?
Speaker 2:It's not, and there's more and more coming in. What you can see in the horizon it's not Journal Square, it's downtown. But Tishman Spire is building a new tower. Lafrak is more about closer to Hoboken and Exchange Place with the stuff that they're doing. They have a 46-story tower that's coming in and they have a ton of other projects. So, yeah, the institutional groups have really started to focus on, like downtown Jersey City. There's a question as to like where a lot of these renters are coming from. I mean anecdotally, like if you walk around places like Journal Square in downtown. The demographics have really changed.
Speaker 1:It's like a whole new pool of people that are living here.
Speaker 2:What are you seeing? It's younger, quite frankly, there's a lot of Asian and, I think, a lot of that. In Journal Square, yes, but also significantly in the downtown and I don't know if that you know. I know that they signed a number of leases with a couple of colleges because they just didn't have enough housing here in New York city and they so they signed leases with on some of the bigger buildings, but, um, I think it's just been a big shift and, um, you've seen it with rents.
Speaker 1:Although I are these. Are these new developments getting occupied a hundred percent at good rents?
Speaker 2:The rents are good. I think what we're starting to see is not, it's not a like um, rents falling, it's more of a stabilization or kind of like a flattening thing, just an oversupply. A lot of people have said that for Jersey city for years. I don't think so. Yeah, I don't, I don't. I don't because you know the other thing is this right, like, think about it with you guys. I know you guys have kids.
Speaker 2:I'm in this boat right now too, to go and buy a house right now or to go and buy another property. It's a nightmare. Yeah, there's not enough inventory, and the people that do have any kind of inventory that they want to sell, uh, they're asking ridiculous pricing and that's you know. New Jersey is not immune to that either. So what are people left to do? They're all renting. So I don't think the whole issue with supply, I don't think at all. It's oversupplied. I think what happened was COVID. We saw rents drop like 20% when they fell and a lot of people were thinking like doom and gloom, this is over. And then they shot back up like 30% from the low. So you started to see gradual increases, that numbers that just were unsustainable five percent year over year growth ten percent, and now we're starting to see not necessarily that same growth. It's it's slowing down um which I think it was probably well I remember, like probably do the like the original spike.
Speaker 3:I remember when kushner built those buildings in journal square, for example, they getting they were like the first ones to the game, like fully amenitized, brand new buildings, and I remember like the studio rents really stood out to me. They were just ridiculous.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:And I don't think those have gone down, but since then there's been so much building. I agree with you, I think it's starting to flatten out.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:Like how can you pop again? Yeah?
Speaker 2:And there's gone. That's all come back now. So you know, people are still. Now. They're back to like, just give me. There's been a big shift too, which I thought was kind of interesting. You're starting to see it especially. It's kind of now tailored towards the demographics of the people that are living there. Right, you used to see amenities and different features being brought into these buildings that you would have thought would have catered to just a general population, but that's not happening, like, for example, pools. Right, these guys always used to think, oh, we have to put a pool into our building. They start putting in pools, the maintenance and everything else that comes with it. They find out no one's using the pools. No one uses the pools.
Speaker 3:Nobody's using the pools in these buildings and used to think like oh, you know what, what?
Speaker 2:what are the main features for this building now? Now it's more about like well, what are the actual common spaces? Because I want to get out of my apartment but I don't want to leave my building, or you know things like that where I can still utilize my building. You know golf simulator, things like that In downtown Jersey City. I've talked to developers that are more focused on doing like card rooms downtown Jersey city. I've talked to developers that are more focused on doing like card rooms because they've noticed a lot of like going back, a lot of the Asian population like to come together and they play games and cards and whatever else you know. So, um, these are different things that are kind of changing there, where people are kind of getting smart as the demographics change.
Speaker 2:But, um, you know, overall, I think what, think what? What's happened? We have seen a slow down I mean because it was just out of control with development sites. We were very lucky. We sold a lot of development sites. Right now we have three projects that are totaling, uh, over over 700 units that are going to be brought. If you kind of do the math, that's like close to once they're all built. It's going to be like over 300 million dollars worth of like built product in jersey city, um, so there's still a lot that's happening, but I think it's it's. It's much more refined, much more selective, and then you'll always have the guys that are doing, like some of the smaller deals, conversions, the condos.
Speaker 2:So, um, it's been good I think, there was definitely a period of time where people were kind of like stepping back, waiting, but I think that period's over. I think people are adjusting and they have to. You know, if you got loans and you got rates, you got to kind of you got to move forward with what you have right now.
Speaker 1:So you're seeing a lot of activity down the Jersey transit lines, or is this still like the path?
Speaker 2:Like these, like Newark and everything in between. There was so much development, dark what. What's happened to a lot of towns and this is what kind of leads into like what we were going to talk about. There's been a lot of shifts in administration, like people have lost their positions in certain cities, as as mayors, because they gave too much and a lot of the residents were like what this is, you know, you know gave too much what they gave too much development. They brought too much development in a lot of these suburban towns that are somewhat anti-development.
Speaker 2:So another thing that happened in Jersey over the past year was they came out with the latest round of affordable housing, basically delineating which municipalities were short and which kind of met their requirement. And there's a lot of towns that aren't providing enough affordable. So what ends up happening is developers identify these and they say, like you know, that's a great piece of land, they don't have enough affordable in this town. So what we're going to do is we're going to make an application and almost force it into the town. So certain towns are dealing with that as we speak and that was something that came out at the beginning of the year. So, yeah, I think that it's going to be interesting to see with a lot of these.
Speaker 2:I mean, we took on a site that was primed right on a transit line that we thought would be perfect. It previously had conceptual site plans that were approved by a previous administration and then a new administration came in and they were like, no, there's, there's no way we would ever approve this for 165 units. And we were like, well we just brought to you what you guys had already approved. So now we got to start to think more creatively as brokers. Right Now we're trying to see potentially if we could do assisted living or some other form senior housing, something else that will still provide good return for our sellers but also make sense in the community. So, wow, yeah, and then you know what else are we seeing, or what else are we selling? Yeah, what?
Speaker 1:are you? What is what is selling or what are we selling in New Jersey?
Speaker 2:Industrial which was like. Obviously all of the institutions started to pivot towards that because I saw, you know, they saw what was happening with all the containers and demand from from shipping.
Speaker 1:Last mile shipping whatever.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that has slowed down, but not to the point where I think you're seeing like fire sales. I think you're just seeing things that are adjusting to whatever this is and a lot of that are more shallow bay that's like the hot term that everybody wants right now. It's basically taking a large site that has a lot of convenient docks and bays where people could kind of come in and out. So you're taking 50,000 square feet and chopping it up into smaller units. You're getting higher economies of scale because you can rent more for smaller spaces. And the truth is I would say I'm by no means an industrial leasing expert, but you just see it with the stats and the data is that over a certain square footage people just aren't renting. You know it's very hard to move product that's like over 50,000, over 100,000.
Speaker 3:Makes sense.
Speaker 2:And a lot of that stuff was moving during COVID. You know people were just taking space. So I think the institutions are now changing how they're looking at stuff. The iOS is still hot. We have to go pitch something later on this afternoon. That's an iOS site. What is iOS Industrial Outdoor Storage? Later on this afternoon? That's an ios site. So it's just what is ios industrial outdoor storage? So it's just guys that are parking containers and trucks in certain areas, because you know municipalities are also pushing back on that.
Speaker 3:They don't want all the trucks in certain towns lease or less like a, like a cooling, like refrigeration yeah refrigeration site. Yeah, isn't that hot, that's interesting we sold that.
Speaker 2:Typically that would sell to another user. This guy operated for years. He was an Italian guy that had a cheese business and he ended up selling it and he sold the whole business to another entity and he no longer needed the site. So we would have thought the highest and best user was going to come in. It would be somebody similar or somebody that needed cold storage. It was actually an investor. So the investor buys it, buys it vacant and he just leased it up.
Speaker 3:So it's kind of I mean, it's got to be, it's necessary. People are going to want that A hundred, but it's got to be rare or not that common warehouse and converting it into cold storage.
Speaker 2:So, um, yeah, that was a good success story. That guy's constantly calling us asking us, uh, what our next deal is, and, um, but yeah, I think everything, everything for industrial it really kind of depends on location, ceiling heights, all of the factors that kind of go into making it whether or not it's desirable now. But, um, retail has been relatively pretty strong. I would say, Once again, it's all kind of based off, you know, location, location, location. Yeah, and you know, like the gentleman that's calling me right now, we've had some interesting offers that have come on some interesting sites, stuff that we never thought that we would move, that we have. Give us examples we have a parking lot that was primed for a development site and it was on an acre, but the problem was it has 215 spaces. It's in a place called Union City, which is very, very hard to develop, it's hard to convert like an apartment, let alone build.
Speaker 3:I've heard about Union City.
Speaker 2:Let alone build like 20 stories on it. So, um, we have this parking lot prime for development. We find out that part of the deed, these 215 spaces you can't just stop the people that are parking there. You'd have to find parking for them if you wanted to develop on the site. It it's crazy. It's the densest place. I think Union City in the whole world is like in the top 10 list of most densely populated places on earth. That's how many people are there.
Speaker 2:So parking things like that are obviously in demand. You can't just take 200 people and just say go park somewhere else for two years as we build a tower here, whatever the case is. But we found a guy that just felt like I'll figure it out and, uh, he made an extremely attractive offer. We had to get the seller to understand how attractive it was and, um, so, yeah, that's that's. That's like a new, fresh deal for something that we never anticipated that we were going to. Uh, we were trying to do all sorts of jvs and everything out. It's like sometimes you look at things and as you get through it into kind of like you know, making the sausage, you realize like this is not what I thought it was in the beginning.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:So, yeah, I think, what else I mean? A lot of different development stories that have all taken kind of different turns.
Speaker 1:But what happened with that diner that you're showing us? A few months ago that that's TBD.
Speaker 2:We have a couple of turns. What happened with that diner that you're showing us a few months ago? That's TBD. We have a couple of offers right now. So, yeah, unfortunately, what's the play there? Just put in another tenant or the family's very motivated to sell. So I won't go into too many details. But yeah, we've got some users that we're looking at it as keeping it as a diner, which is a big, heavy lift because it was very, very old. We've had EV companies that want to come and pay a premium, but the problem is it just takes so long to get those approvals because you're dealing with state agencies and getting power and whatnot. So those offers have been a struggle. And then we've had guys that want to do it's on a highway so they want to use it for cannabis in a town where it was the first town outlaw, saying we're not doing cannabis. But meanwhile they're realizing the town north of us does, the town south of us does. We're just kind of throwing money away because the guys that are buying cannabis are going through our town or coming from our town to go buy it somewhere else. So maybe we should. Wow, yeah, there's been things like that. Yeah, and I think you know for us the way we operate, right Geographically, everyone's been kind of focused on specific areas.
Speaker 2:So, depending on where they are, they're selling, whatever that product type is predominantly, you know, moving in those markets so everyone kind of has like their own little individual focus and, yeah, it's been a big change. You know, moving in those markets, so everyone kind of has like their own little individual focus and, yeah, it's been a big change. You know, I came into this completely as a broker and now everything is really kind of more shifted towards trying to help these guys manage them, trying to get them to develop their own book of business and understand all of the pitfalls. And it was something different for me. I wasn't, you know, I was kind of like a lone wolf that was just used to like going out there do your own deals. So you kind of take a step back to help nurture these guys and watch them grow, and I think the guys that I have are all all worth it, like they've all kind of, are you know we?
Speaker 2:have, we have a good team. So it's like you're investing in guys to watch them grow and so far it's been good Seth, a really good crew there.
Speaker 3:I think now is the time, so do we here I mean, that's a big part, right, you brought it up earlier in the podcast, but we're here most of our days, more than our houses, more than anything else, so we don't want to be in these offices with people that we don't like or that we don't see eye to eye with, or whatever.
Speaker 3:We spend all our time with them. So I think both offices have done a great job, having a really, really good crew and people that want to work here, and obviously I want to work with everyone here.
Speaker 1:I know you do as well. I also hear from clients throughout the market and just people in general that they really like our brokers that we have here. It's hard not to they have good experiences, they feel comfortable, they like the energy, the attitude. I mean you just hear it time and time again the guys are deal makers, they're hungry, but people really like the people that work here.
Speaker 2:It's funny you say that and I'll I'll, I'll specifically call him out Cause I was, I was, I was proud of him when, when I when this happened right, like I tell these guys things, we're in this new age where everything is about like AI and emails and whatever else, I'm like there's nothing that beats walking into some guy's office and introducing yourself and giving them some information about the company, shaking their hand, looking them in the eye and talking to them about who you are. So there was a group in Bergen County. I never heard of them. The guy was so excited it was kind of weird. He was so excited to meet me, come to my office, come to my office. So I bring Nick with me and we walk in and Nick is like I've been here before. Like you know, I've tried to get in with these guys. I've walked into their office cold and as soon as we walk in, guy says hello to me and he looks at Nick and he's like you've been here before and I like I try to employ that in these guys Like this is what you need to do, because how else is you call somebody, especially with you guys?
Speaker 2:Cause I remember what it was like to work in a market like Brooklyn or New York, which you know I did years ago cold calling. You'd call. I tell this story all the time right, you cold call nine o'clock in the morning, you're all pumped, you got the caffeine in your system. You're like I'm going to make fucking so much money today. And you go and you call a guy and he answers the phone. He's like you're the 10th guy, shit. Like you know what? Now I got to go to Jersey. It's not like that. You know we have different kinds of levels of competition. So it's like to go in front of somebody and to meet them in person. It's completely different than just trying to be another guy that's calling. So you know that was also part of the, the, the reason why I felt it was important for us to have our own office there. You guys got to get out into the markets, you got to canvas, you got to go meet with people face to face.
Speaker 3:So I think it's starting to finally pay off, and a lot of people don't do it. People don't want to leave their office right. And today it's so. You get people's numbers way easier, like when I started. It was hard right. Like you got someone's cell. You were there wasn't a lot of people talking to them right Like you had their cell and not a lot of people did it was good.
Speaker 3:Now it's way different and to have a real relationship you need to go out and meet these people, yeah, and they're not going to. They're not going to just give you the business without meeting you. And if they do, you don't really want it because it's probably not a good opportunity I get this all the time, especially from like the new, new guys.
Speaker 2:right, they're always trying to think of like, what's the easiest way? Like, what can I do? I got to get a sale, I got to get a listing. And I try and be as deadly honest from the beginning, because it's like if you lead somebody on a path and then they start to realize how hard the business is, they're going to die immediately anyway. And I tell them it's, it's. There is no easy path in this business. The easy path is understanding the information, knowing the sales, knowing the players, knowing the markets. That's, that's the easiest way, because once you know that and you get in front of somebody, they're going to realize that you're the guy that they need to go with. So if you want to take the easiest way, just learn the markets as quick as possible.
Speaker 2:So I think that's a struggle, I think that I don't know if that's a cultural thing I don't want to sound like the old man in the room, but like you notice that with like a lot of the younger guys are always just looking for, like the what's the quick, easy way, and they're in this business. It's just, I don't think. It just doesn't exist, you know. So I give them guidelines, things you should target, what you should be looking for. You know potential signs. We talk about it all the time, but um other than that, it's just it's hard work Just getting your ass out into people's offices and meeting with them, even when it's hot these months it's tough, you don't want to get on the subway or the path right now.
Speaker 3:Yeah, Tomorrow's. Tomorrow's going to be brutal.
Speaker 2:So, you know, um, but yeah, no, I think, uh, overall things have been, things have been very positive. Um, I think there's a lot of change that's coming, you know, coming, uh, coming here. We were dealing with it as well. With this election year there's been a lot of talk. Um, I think, uh, you know, I was out to dinner the other night with a friend of mine very wealthy guys lived in New York City for years and he said to me you know, if this Mamdani guy wins, now his whole business is there.
Speaker 2:He's got one of the most. I won't mention it, but if it's like completely, you see it every time you walk out on the streets, he's got a very big interest in the city. He said if mom Domini wins, that's it for me. I'm out, I'm moving out. And I said to him like, why, like, why now, Like, this has been something that's been happening, this culture has been leading to this. Now, all of a sudden, you're, you're going to bail out of your you know, huge condo or whatever in New York city, and I've been hearing that from a lot of people. So for us, we look at that as kind of great. Can we capture more market share? Are there going to be really more people shifting over. I'd be curious to see what you guys have been hearing and thinking. What's been the mindset of people knowing, what are their thoughts on what they think is going to happen.
Speaker 3:I mean it's a good thing you're bringing up right Like Jersey. It's not as bad as New York, right, the multifamily laws, although there are laws. Right, it's rent-controlled housing. You get a vacancy, you approve it, you renovate it, you can raise the rent. You can't do that in New York anymore.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so honestly we have. Each municipality has their own individual sets. For sure it could be different from just one little tiny thing, a certain percentage in this town. To no, you can't raise it at all. To, we don't keep track of that stuff.
Speaker 1:A hundred percent, you can do whatever you want.
Speaker 2:You know. So yeah, it really depends on what the municipality is, For sure.
Speaker 3:Jersey City though I was referring to. Yeah, jersey City, I know it's the bottom line is it's better. It, I know it's the bottom line is it's better. It's still bad, but it's better than New York. So, yeah, with Mondami, if he does come in here, yeah, jersey is literally obviously doing very well. It's very close.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 3:You could definitely see some investment dollars going over there, if they haven't already. Right Like the rent laws the past year, in 2019 is enough already.
Speaker 1:You think income earners in the city are going to start leaving the city and going to Jersey or Westchester or Long?
Speaker 3:Island, three or four people in this office that live in Hoboken. So I'm up and down on the rents there because they're all leasing apartments and it's crazy, double digit the rents. Oh yeah, double digit rents in Hoboken for three beds, like it was not the case a few years ago. Jersey City obviously we know the rents. All these places the rents are way higher than I thought. And these are all people coming into the city, do you think? That's happening in.
Speaker 1:Westchester and Long Island as well. I mean the housing market.
Speaker 3:Obviously in Connecticut, long Island, westchester is insane, it's not. There's definitely pockets of westchester that have a big rental presence, right, but I I'm not up and down on those yeah yeah, but obviously the housing market is insane but you think people are leaving the city to go to these.
Speaker 2:It's been happening for years yeah, it's been happening since 21 if you listen to people, the way they talk, now they're you know it's, uh, they're they're making it clear, now more than ever, that, uh, if that happens, let's see what happens I brought this up to you the other day it's hard to say yeah I? I personally think, hey, if that does happen, it's just going to create different opportunity from this place is not going anywhere. They've they've seen good times, bad times. People will always come back.
Speaker 1:That's the thing, is there's always opportunity, like the ebbs, the flows. I've been doing this, for I've been in real estate in New York for 20 years and I've seen all sorts of things that I thought were going to be really bad, and in some cases they were bad for investment dollars. But then it also creates opportunity. Sure, you know, like the money, the liquidity just flows. It finds a path, a way.
Speaker 3:The issue with our clients, though, I mean for us. I agree right, oh, new york after covet 9-11? Whatever you want to discuss, it always does come back yeah the issue is a lot of these people that own buildings. They're they're of an age now where they're at retirement age. Like you don't see like 30 year olds or four year olds owning these multi-million dollar buildings.
Speaker 3:Obviously there are some yeah but it's mostly people in their mid sixties, seventies, 80 years old and they look at okay, they're going to elect this guy. It's definitely going to be four years of like bad stuff. I'm like at retirement age, I, it is what it is. Yeah, I got to go. Yeah, like we were at a number of events. Like you look around, you know the landlords, you know the rage, like they're they're looking for an event. Like they're looking to retire and take it easy.
Speaker 2:Right.
Speaker 3:So they, they can't, they don't have the luxury of waiting it out as of.
Speaker 1:Do you think? Do you you think you're seeing real-time sales?
Speaker 3:Yeah, I think there's people, that People are like I'll just take my money now and call it a day, a hundred percent.
Speaker 3:If they thought, oh, mondami's going to come in or X person's going to come in and it's going to be different in two years, they would obviously wait it out. But we know that's not the case, right, these things need four, five, six years. So they don't have that and they don't have that and they don't care. Right, like they're not going to wait until they're, you know, five years older, like it's now. Like yeah, this is, it's a, it's a, it's a sign. Yeah, right, people can wait for interest rates, because interest rates could be a six month, one year thing. I'll wait it out. Right, like to force pal out. Like there's someone who's gonna come in there to cut rates, that's gonna happen. It's either gonna happen soon or not, right, but america coming in, having to wait through him, then seeing how bad it is. Like look at the rental laws, right, that happened in 19. Obviously it's going horribly. That was on the state level, I mean yeah, that was obviously very bad.
Speaker 1:Everyone knows it's very, very it's going horribly. That was on the state level. I mean, yeah, that was obviously very bad.
Speaker 3:Everyone knows it's very, very bad. It's obviously I mean very bad for New York. There's a million units vacant, or hundreds of thousands of units vacant whatever, it is Too bad in every way. Yeah, so it's been horrible, but how long is it going to take for everyone to realize it? Change it. It's already been since 19. It's not being changed.
Speaker 1:It's already been six years, it's already going in a worse direction. It's getting worse. It's getting worse with Mondami.
Speaker 3:if that happens, so it's funny.
Speaker 1:Can you wait it?
Speaker 2:out.
Speaker 1:And potentially who he points to positions within the city.
Speaker 3:We could wait it out because of our age. But if you're at retirement age, what are you going to do? Just wait it out? No, you. So you're pulling the trigger now.
Speaker 1:You're pulling the trigger Right now.
Speaker 3:If you see someone like Mondami on the horizon and you're ready to go, you're pulling the trigger. You can't wait it out. It could be a five, six, seven year thing. I agree.
Speaker 1:It's going to come back. What do you think? Let's just go through this logic. So Mondami becomes mayor. Yeah, how does that negatively impact real estate ownership in New York City, if I?
Speaker 3:own multifamily in New York City.
Speaker 1:Rent stabilized or free market.
Speaker 3:Obviously mostly rent stabilized.
Speaker 1:Free market too.
Speaker 3:Like good cause all this stuff. It's not great. But rent stabilized housing, which a lot of the housing is. The big landlords own a lot of rent stabilized housing. Yeah, yeah, obviously, if you had hopes of the 2019 laws being reversed or changed or whatever it is, yeah, it's not a good sign. That's not a good sign, because he's not going to change those laws.
Speaker 1:Well, he can't. He has nothing to do with those laws, but he goes to speak to the psychology of what the electorate wants out of the representatives which is a more socialist, communist type of ideology than what we experienced in the past.
Speaker 3:Yeah, like if you had 10 years, you're waiting.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 3:But if you have like two, you're not, you can't.
Speaker 1:Yeah, no, 10 years is a long time and a lot of stuff can happen. There's a lot of macroeconomic factors that happen across the world that have an impact obviously real estate and, um, the value of the dollar and interest rates but jersey's obviously here talking about jersey, but that's not far behind either, right well, no, and it's what's going on in?
Speaker 2:jersey. It depends on on uh, on which which city we're talking about. But I'll just add one other thing, because you brought that up, about what he could specifically do or not, do I think it's it's more about ideology, and it's more about ideology and it's not a thing where I think that, like the things that he is saying are bad. Right, like I want to help this percentage of whatever the population is, we deal with it and I'll get into like specific details on the Jersey side, but it's not that it's a bad idea to do these certain policies or whatever. Like I wear my, my political affiliations right on my sleeve. Right, it's whoever is not going to take money from me in terms of like tax me more, and but if you're going to tax me, just give me something for that.
Speaker 3:Right, like.
Speaker 2:That's all I don't care if you're a Republican or you're a Democrat, I don't care. Just please don't take my hard-earned money and forgive my language, but just piss it away, which unfortunately, I mean, we've been seeing this happen. It got with the whole um, what was the elon thing called? Uh, the doge, like you saw how, oh my god, look at what's going on and that just like dissipated, like now.
Speaker 3:Nobody take my tax.
Speaker 2:Don't let me inhale we don't even talk about that anymore. But I think the specific problem that you have with this guy coming in if he if he does, god forbid, get get elected is that he wants to do all of these great things for people in terms of giveaways and have, you know, free supermarkets and and, and you know, buses and this and that Systems that don't function. Now he wants to make more dysfunctional by whatever Get rid of the cops, fine. The problem is always and we deal with this here if you're going to just continue to give these things away, how are you going to pay for it? So the people that now you're basically forcing out, the top earners that have the flexibility to just live wherever they want, they don't have to live here.
Speaker 2:Let's be honest, and maybe they'll come back after values drop and live even better, but they don't have to be here. So the people that you're forcing to be here you're going to continue to tax, make it harder and when it comes specifically to, like our industry in real estate, you can't raise your income on rents, which is the only thing that these guys can do as far as, like a property owner, I have to raise my rents in order, but you're going to continue to increase property taxes, you're going to increase all of these other expenses associated with operating a property and expect that to make sense. It's a losing proposition.
Speaker 1:It's a losing fight too, and when you look at it, it's a losing fight too, because we've been fighting this fight for how many years? And they don't see it, they don't understand it. They continue to make it worse and worse. Absolutely, it's a losing battle right now.
Speaker 2:So in Jersey we're dealing with the same thing and I'll just give you some specific examples. Right In Jersey City right now they've changed their policy. We have a mayor who is a Democrat. I think he's done an amazing job, like we just talked about before, in completely shifting the whole landscape of the way that that place looks the skyline, all the new developments. It's been great. But what's been happening behind the scenes is that the budget in a place like Jersey City is completely dysfunctional, like they have some serious, serious issues that are coming with the way that the municipality is operating. So what they've been doing is like in most cases, they just look for who are the people that we could get money from the quickest and easiest. And in a place like Jersey City, where there's so much development, that's from developers.
Speaker 2:So yeah, we sold a site for $12.5 million. It was a piece of land. Nothing else happened. It got approvals. The city came back and reassessed that property for $30 million. They said that that property that we sold for $12.5 was worth more than double.
Speaker 2:So I felt so bad for the guy that bought it. I walked into the tax assessor's office and I said to them I sold this property. I sold this property, I sold this one. I sold this property, I sold this one. They're all near each other. These are all of the values. How are you coming up with this? Like, are you telling me? I sold this, took three years.
Speaker 2:Every single person looked at it. They decided not to bid on it a $30 million property but this one guy bought it for 12. Like we, I didn't do my job. I sold it for half of what it's worth, she said, you know? She started giving me all these explanations on why it was valued for what it was. None of them made sense. They were using the properties in the West side. They were using examples of the West side where rents are like $2,000 for a studio to downtown sales where it's, like, you know, 4,000, 5,000. So I said that that makes no sense. So she said okay, we'll, we'll settle with you, we'll meet in the middle at $20 million.
Speaker 2:He's like I paid 12 for how? How am I settling in the middle at 12? So he had to go and fight it and she knew that the process would take two years. Now he could die. Something could change where they would win, because he would just walk away from the fight or he has to continue to pay it every single year until the the battle is over, which he ultimately won, and this has been happening. There's been so many developers where their properties have been over double, been getting assessed excuse me where. They are now challenging it and they're winning, and the city doesn't have enough money to pay back, so they're taking out bonds in order to pay back people for money that they took up. Oh is because they have to pay back the years of paying this fake tax. Exactly, got it. Exactly so it's-. Who's buying the bonds? Who are you paying?
Speaker 1:for they're going to what's the rate they're offering on?
Speaker 2:that All of the residents and the taxpayers that fund the entire city are the ones that ultimately have to pay for it. And you know, jersey's also had issues because they were getting a lot of funding. It's always the schools that has the biggest trouble, the board of eds. They were getting a lot of money from the federal government and, as you know, we've seen this year that the federal government has decided to say, in certain cases, we're going to slash spending here, here and here, and they're starting to take money out of Trenton, which was feeding into all of these schools. So now they have to figure out a different way. So, which leads us to what they've done recently.
Speaker 2:Right, they've now just implemented this new mansion tax they're calling it which I think this is everywhere in New Jersey. This is everywhere in New Jersey. It only applies to certain properties, though, right. So, for example, industrial properties it doesn't apply to, and in certain cases I want to say I'm not an accountant or lawyer but I want to say in certain multifamily properties over X amount of units it doesn't apply to. But what it does apply to is, like the people that we were talking about before, the Italian guy that owned a business for x amount of years. It's a mixed-use property and he's finally ready to sell. Now he's getting hit with an additional tax that he wasn't anticipating. Apartments over a store, exactly, yeah, anything, that's the finest.
Speaker 2:4a that's the way we do it in jersey is um is getting taxed and obviously residential properties, houses which six family, ten family, we don't sell when it gets over a certain limit. So we're talking about, if you were going to do it, they would do it to the institutional owners that own, like the bigger, but it doesn't apply to them, it applies to the smaller people. So it was. They define it, as you call it, mansion tax and you're thinking in your mind like, oh, this is going to all the the millionaires and that's not the case with people that own, like a million dollar for a commercial property, that's like everywhere, like that's just bread and butter.
Speaker 2:How much is the tax? So the tax goes. It goes 1% additional tax. Whatever you have to pay in, like capital gains and everything. This is just an added tab, basically like an added expense, because you can't write it off to the sales price from one. So it goes from. It's a progressive tax. It goes from one million to two million, is one percent. After two million it goes up to two percent. After, uh, two million to three million, it goes up to three percent and then it caps at three percent or it could cap at three and a half percent. But, um, my point is that so it's like a hundred grand, $3 million.
Speaker 3:Another transfer tax. Essentially Exactly, Double paying transfer tax, Exactly. So I'll give you In most cases probably more.
Speaker 2:We were-.
Speaker 1:That's on the sale price.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think the deadline was July 10th, right? So any deal that got signed under contract that doesn't close before November, it takes effect after July 10th. We were up to 11 o'clock at night signing contracts between buyer and seller on one deal that we just put under contract in order to make sure that we were going to be exempt from this mansion tax, and we got it done 2-3% is massive, so that's going to slow down the sales in certain cases.
Speaker 2:Yeah, they're going to start looking at which they've already made very difficult. They're going to start looking at the brokers and being like, oh you know, it's like the way that they go after taxing developers. Now they're going to start to look at brokers and say what can you do to add into?
Speaker 3:and jersey's, doesn't they like jack up the real estate taxes like last year, two years ago?
Speaker 2:real estate taxes. It's all individual, you're right, like each municipality has its own different well, just say jersey city, right journal square. Yeah, so that? Yeah, they jacked it up. I know, yes, jersey city, and like I said before, I I think, unfortunately jersey city probably has some rough roads ahead of it. That's why the mayor who was running for governor, unfortunately he lost uh, you could say unfortunately or fortunately, but um, he didn't even win Hudson County.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah, he spent a lot of money. He was on everyone's TVs for a while. There didn't even win Hudson County. Um, I think you're probably going to see a shift towards a red governor coming in into neutral. Oh, really For sure. I think he was very close last time. Yeah, time, yeah, this. Uh, jack citarelli, I think, uh, whatever, if I didn't pronounce that right, apologies, but um, I think you're probably going to see, I went to bed that night and election night looking and he was actually winning, and when I woke up they were counting in all the mail-in ballots from all the mallet man and, uh, he ended up.
Speaker 2:He ended up getting edged out by murphy. I think this time you're starting to really see a shift. I think potentially he could win. But you know they're in Jersey city specifically, with follow-up going out. There's some very similar people to mom Domini that are trying to take his position, that have a very good case that they could potentially become the next mayor and they're anti-development, anti-anti-developer. Every, all developers are corrupt. So I don't know how you can build additional units and provide more affordable housing and do things like that when you kind of have that kind of mindset. So for us as a firm, geographically we've been trying to spread out, we've been doing deals in other municipalities and I think the luxury that we also have is that we could sell other asset classes. We've been selling more land, we've been selling more industrial, more retail, whatever it is that we can kind of pivot to. We do we?
Speaker 1:can A hundred percent. You got to pivot, you got to just follow the flow of capital. Yeah, exactly, that's been. One of the things I've always done is like I listened to buyers and you know I understand what it is that they want to buy, Like where's the money want to be placed, and then just go find those.
Speaker 3:We tell our brokers every Monday morning it's not listing. Listing properties is awesome and obviously it's our business. Yeah, but if you can't sell it like, you want to focus on things that people want to buy.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 3:Where you can bid the price up or it's going to have a good sales transaction, Like for us in New York right now. That's land, free market, buildings, anything with like redevelopment potential. But yeah, like the RS, like it's tough, yeah. So I mean development's been huge. There's a huge boom.
Speaker 2:Now's a good time to pivot to our new sponsor Saratoga.
Speaker 1:Oh, is that it's Saratoga?
Speaker 2:yeah, it's good, I like that when I saw it first, I wanted to get a bowl and stick my face in the water.
Speaker 3:It's got a beautiful bottle. It does.
Speaker 1:So okay. So why else are people telling Like, if rates are still high? I mean, I understand the political dynamics. People are pulling the trigger for that.
Speaker 2:We. We have opinion of values. That we did a year ago and that was really a. It was somebody that just said, like I'm throwing in the towel. I was ready a year ago, but rates didn't drop. I'm ready. I was ready then, I'm really ready now. Yeah, I do not see where rates are going to continue to fall. But I think obviously everyone has their own individual stories. You know, everyone has different things uh, selling their business, they're moving out of state, they're doing this, they're doing that. People die. There's a thousand different reasons, but I think the people that were motivated last year anticipating this, you know rate cuts everywhere, they're just like why do you, why do you think, luke, that, um this summer has been so hot for activity for us?
Speaker 3:Well, I think this summer has been so hot. Yeah, well, I think a lot of our sellers right, a lot of sellers if you're dealing with professional sellers, they are looking to sell for the most money and they're looking for rates coming down or something changing with the mayor or whatever it is. But most of our sellers are selling for a reason, and a lot of it's retirement and they're looking to do other things and obviously they want to sell into a good environment, but I don't think it matters as much. But you're asking why I always.
Speaker 1:I always felt like all right, go ahead, done yet all right keep going let's hear it I think he's just getting warmed up come on today.
Speaker 3:So why have people bought so much? I'll tell you. You can answer however you want to build, and I think that people want to build into that market. Right, rents are crazy and there's no reason for it to come down. There's a huge supply issue, right. So I think people are trying to do that right, like the stabilized rents. Obviously that's now done. Free market rents there's good cause eviction so people are moving less and obviously the tax payments are tough and there hasn't been people building. So there is a need for housing and I think people think that there's a need. Rates are going to come down let me buy now and they're pushing really hard and that's why the summer's been so hot do you think?
Speaker 1:uh, people think there's going to be in inflation of rents.
Speaker 3:Oh, inflation, yeah, I'm just asking.
Speaker 1:Do you think that that goes into the calculation of why buyers are being extra aggressive right now?
Speaker 3:I think Yanni brought this up. So yeah, inflation. Obviously Yanni brought this up that a lot less people are buying homes, so people are renting. People that historically would have, at this stage in their life and their income bracket, bought a home are definitely not. I can litter this conversation with examples of people I know personally.
Speaker 2:They've also been saying that the average age of a current home buyer now has shifted from when it used to be like 27 years old or young. Now it's like 35. Or older. Yeah Well, I just heard some stats, the other day, especially in the tri-state area.
Speaker 2:Well, this is national now because obviously rates are affecting the whole country. But like the whole mindset now has been like has just shifted, so people are more comfortable now just renting than they are purchasing and probably because you just can't, there's just really no inventory to buy. I know anecdotally by me you are starting to see pricing start to come down. And one other quick thing I don't mean to cut you off, luke, no, please. We saw this especially during COVID, like you were having conversation with guys that were like New York developers, jersey developers, that like left, we're going down to Texas.
Speaker 3:We're going down to texas?
Speaker 2:yeah, we're going to carolina. We're going all the and now look at those markets. Those markets are suffering so bad. Why? Because if you want the next ranch in texas, you could just go down on your horse and there's another ranch right there or in, or in florida. Look how bad florida is. Right, yeah, we had family that left. They moved to the west coast. Um, thank god, I think they're. They're doing great with what they had purchased. But, like you're starting to see now, places like Lakeland Ranch and outside of that Tampa area, yeah, values are just dropping. I think some of it has to do with, like insurance and flooding and everything else all the storms, but it's also just there's so much supply like people build exactly and, like New York, it's so hard to build the fundamentals that we've had here, that have always been here with supply and demand.
Speaker 2:they're not creating any more land here and it's probably even gotten harder to build here. Correct, it's not changing. So so when people left here thinking that they were going to just, I hope, they made quick money. But you've you've heard more stories of people kind of getting banged up and hurt in the markets where they tried to flee to then and now coming back to try and put money.
Speaker 3:I always said this new york you have a major, major appreciation play. It doesn't exist other places. It's about cap rates and yield, yeah, and when rents go down or expenses insurance, for example, go up, you're done yeah because you don't have like the appreciation that you have in or like the rental appreciation like there's been. I can't even believe it's true, but it is obviously true. But there's major rental appreciation in new york city in the last couple years. When you can take, you can get any higher it does yeah mostly because they're just reducing the supply 100% constrained yeah
Speaker 2:which is obviously cheating I mean it, it's all and people want to be here yeah, we want to be here. We've been big beneficiaries of that in Jersey. 100%, you have Big, big, big beneficiaries. I can't believe Hoboken rents.
Speaker 3:Yeah, and Hoboken.
Speaker 1:obviously people think of Hoboken as like the prime very close to the for three beds, double crazy rents. Yeah, so they're comparable to new york, absolutely. Brooklyn, brooklyn, oh my god, definitely. So all right, cool is um anything else.
Speaker 2:Yanni that I I had one thing I was gonna throw out here. If you guys, are open to this uh I kind of wanted to like mix things up a little bit, you know, add like a new kind of element to this. So I saw I saw this once a while back. This is for you too. Okay, I want to. I'm going to come, I'm going to give you guys a word, okay, okay and whatever word.
Speaker 2:I give you Okay, I've got a combination of words. It'll. It'll get harder as we go on, and you guys just give me whatever the first thing is that comes to your mind. So like, for example like an IQ test.
Speaker 2:No, no, no, no, no, no, no. This is just the. How do you see the world? What do you see going on? Like, share, share with me your thoughts. I mean we could edit it out if it sucks, but I think it's going to be fun, it would be great, Okay. Like, for example, if I say Liberty bagels, which I know Luke loves, he would say like the best bagels on earth something like that.
Speaker 3:Our retail team just had a nice lease with them, so that's what came to mind.
Speaker 2:So that's the example.
Speaker 3:They are good bagels.
Speaker 2:Keep it to like two, three words, one word if possible, and we'll just try and run through this real quick.
Speaker 1:One word, it's tough.
Speaker 2:So I'll give you the easy layups first. I'll go with with you first eric right 2019 rent loss horrible, perfect, see that's how this game works.
Speaker 3:It's very very easy, okay, ai in real estate could be bad or my word is interesting yeah, and you know it's well, it's one word, zero, but yeah, it's interesting yeah yeah, ai, if you want to elaborate on it, yeah is it going to be good or it could be bad, right? I think a lot of people I'm loving AI right now.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it makes me feel like all this mental like capacity, the brain load that I had to deal with, and so many different things like to think through and then I just throw thoughts off AI and it helps me to crystallize my thinking you are a little too addicted to the Gronk, but it is what it is it's good. It's not Gronk, it's Gronk.
Speaker 3:Gronk.
Speaker 2:Gronk. 4. Okay, friendliest broker at IPRG, zach Siskin. Okay, 100% Okay. Well, this one was for you. Sorry, ani Best.
Speaker 3:And me? What about me? I mean, I don't know what to call you the friendliest.
Speaker 1:I'm not the friendliest. You know what I call you Best dress broker at IPRG.
Speaker 2:Donald Could be Jersey too. You could throw Jersey in there.
Speaker 3:So obviously Homer's Jersey.
Speaker 2:Dre, come on oh.
Speaker 3:Dre.
Speaker 1:I forgot about Dre Dre's the best dress, dre's number one dress.
Speaker 2:Donald. Okay, all right, donald has it. Donald said it. We got a couple more here. We got to move through these Congestion pricing. Now you don't travel the way I do, so you might not really be aware of this?
Speaker 1:Is that still in?
Speaker 2:place, see, and that was the thing I didn't realize this until recently.
Speaker 1:Here's my answer to congestion pricing, and this might be controversial, but I like it yeah.
Speaker 2:Okay, whatever, last easy pass I thought Trump said that was God Luke goes whatever, this is a guy that lives in the city. He doesn't give a shit. This is for you, eric Adams. Better Now.
Speaker 1:You guys are now in Great choice at this point, the best choice the Mount.
Speaker 3:Rushmore right Better than all the rest. He's a mayor a lot.
Speaker 1:I think he's doing a great job, come on, compared to what we had with de blasio. I love you need.
Speaker 3:You need to have a cop friendly mayor and he is very cop friendly yeah, because he used to be a cop, but I think he's the best option we have by.
Speaker 1:Think about the riots that were going on in la a couple months ago, like that didn't happen here I'll tell you that's good for the city.
Speaker 2:Oh, you know what? I'm going to move this around because I don't want to end with the one that I was.
Speaker 3:It's supposed to be one word, so Okay.
Speaker 2:Either one of you guys Office to resi conversion. Is it a thing? Is it really happening?
Speaker 3:It's happening Crowded. I hear it too much, I like that it's obviously happening.
Speaker 1:I like that Crowded. I happening. I like that crowded, I think I like that we could get that could be overdone. There's also really good potential, serious potential in situations.
Speaker 3:Yeah, okay, yeah, there was just. Yeah, go ahead, jerome powell out behind the curve.
Speaker 2:Yeah, the future of new jersey real estate. It better be on a high note if I look honestly high note.
Speaker 3:I mean it's, it's. It gets better every every year and I think there's a opportunity it's my word, opportunity I love that.
Speaker 1:Mine is upward trajectory, for sure.
Speaker 3:Two words, but that's what it is, it's, it's a big opportunity I love that. All right, this is great yeah thanks me back, don't make it another two years.
Speaker 1:Alright, 100%, let's wrap there Good times.
Speaker 2:Thanks, man I appreciate it, appreciate it.
